Photo: ROSEMURA250 · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

Forecast Check-in — Five Days to 12 August, and No Early Move.

No new wire this morning — so here is the ledger audit nobody else runs, five days out from the call that matters.
━━━━━━━━━
1️⃣ FORECAST CHECK-IN — FIVE DAYS TO 12 AUGUST, AND NO EARLY MOVE
The US CDC's §362 Ebola entry suspension (DRC, Uganda, South Sudan) still expires 12 August. We checked the CDC port-health order page this morning: it still shows only the 13 July order — no early renewal, no early lapse. The epidemiology behind it has hardened, not eased: DRC now at 3,874 confirmed cases and 1,751 deaths to 3 August (WHO/ECDC weekly, 4 Aug), up from 3,605 a week earlier. Our open calls sit exactly where we left them — renewal with DRC still listed (P044/P047), Uganda held at US Level 4 (P056), Uganda not decoupled (P031). One resolved correct this week: P053 (DRC would breach 3,605 — it did).
🎯 So what: keep the ban in your base case past 12 Aug. Do not price a September US-source recovery into Uganda or regional forecasts yet.
🏷 All | Regional | Reported

2️⃣ STILL TRUE — THE ADVISORY BOARD HASN'T MOVED
US: Kenya L2, Tanzania L3, Zanzibar L3, Uganda L4, Rwanda L3. UK: Kenya L2, Tanzania/Zanzibar L1, Uganda L3, Rwanda L2. Uganda's US Level 4 re-confirmed on travel.state.gov this morning — the 5 Aug US commendation of Uganda's own response is goodwill, not a downgrade. No government moved a level overnight.
🎯 So what: a confirmed "no change" tells you not to discount on advisory grounds. Hold rate and hold your security messaging.
🏷 All | Regional | Confirmed

3️⃣ COST PULSE — THE PUMP-PRICE WINDOW CLOSES IN A WEEK
Kenya diesel is held at KSh 222.86/L and super at KSh 214.03/L only through 14 August (EPRA July review) — propped by a KSh 945m levy draw and the 8% petroleum VAT rate extended to 14 Oct. KES steady at 129.30/USD; reserves 6.0 months' cover. The quiet killer stands: electricity pass-through charges now top KSh 5/kWh.
🎯 So what: lock safari-transfer and generator-fuel contracts this week, before the ~15 Aug review reprices the cycle. Read the pass-through line on the power bill, not the tariff band.
🏷 Bush | Kenya | Confirmed
━━━━━━━━━
📡 WEEK AHEAD
• Fri 8 Aug — CBK weekly bulletin (FX, reserves)
• Tue 12 Aug — US CDC §362 entry order expires; watch renewal + Uganda listing (P044/P047 resolve)
• Fri 15 Aug — EPRA fuel review (P025/P028 resolve)
• Mon 18 Aug — WHO IHR Emergency Committee on Bundibugyo — could adjust the PHEIC (P052)
• 19–21 Aug — Hotel Expo Kenya, KICC Nairobi — a city-hotel midweek compression window

📡 RADAR: 336 in-window observations since 6 Aug 18:00 EAT. Top signal was a Federal Register CDC page-change (first seen 07:35 EAT) — opened and cleared: no new Ebola order behind it. The rest was gazette cause-lists and global hotel-brand PR — noise for our market.

🔗 This edition on the web: eahospitalitypulse.com/editions/pulse-2026-08-07-mornin…
— EA Hospitality Pulse | Daily intelligence for city, bush & beach properties