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FORECAST CHECK-IN — the CDC order slot is still empty, and the DRC just crossed 4,000.

No fresh qualifying story since this morning — so tonight is a forecast check-in on the week that decides the regional risk picture. Four days to 12 August.

🎯 FORECAST CHECK-IN — the CDC order slot is still empty, and the DRC just crossed 4,000

We checked the CDC port-health order page tonight (cdc.gov, page reviewed 20 July): the latest order is still the 13 July one, in force 30 days — so it expires around 12 August. No renewed order has posted yet. That is exactly the call we logged: no early move before 11 August.

The backdrop hardened. DRC's Bundibugyo outbreak has passed 4,000 confirmed cases for the first time — 4,053 confirmed, 1,850 deaths (DRC situation update, 6 Aug, data to 5 Aug), up from 3,605 / 1,587 at WHO's 30 July cut-off. A ~44% fatality ratio and no plateau.

🏷 Regional · All segments · Confidence: Confirmed (case data), Reported (our forecast)
🎯 So what: Base case for 12 August is renewal, not lapse. If you take US bookings for September, plan on the entry ban and Uganda's US Level 4 holding past the 12th. The realistic earliest Uganda relief tracks the 42-day all-clear around 27 August — not next week. Don't price a September US recovery on a downgrade the data doesn't yet support.

📌 STILL TRUE — the advisory board hasn't moved
Kenya US L2 / UK L2 · Uganda US L4 / UK L3 · Tanzania US L3 / UK L1 · Zanzibar US L3 / UK L1 · Rwanda US L3 / UK L2 (verified 4 Aug, unchanged). A confirmed "no change" for the Kenyan, Tanzanian, Zanzibari and Rwandan tourist cores is a reason to hold rate into peak, not discount.

🗓 WEEK AHEAD
• EPRA fuel review — effective 15 Aug (one week out). Nairobi diesel held at KSh222.86/L this cycle, propped by the levy and the 8% VAT extension to 14 Oct.
• CBK weekly bulletin — Friday (FX, reserves).
• 12 Aug CDC order decision · 18 Aug WHO IHR Emergency Committee.
🎯 The fuel planning window closes 14 Aug — lock diesel-linked transfer and generator contracts before the review and the October VAT cliff.

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