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The evening does what the calendar forces: it puts a clock on the one decision that actually moves Uganda's…

The evening does what the calendar forces: it puts a clock on the one decision that actually moves Uganda's bookings — and audits a forecast that just landed.
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1️⃣ THE 12 AUGUST CLOCK — 9 DAYS TO THE CALL THAT MATTERS
The US CDC's Section 362 entry order covering DR Congo, Uganda and South Sudan expires 12 August — nine days out. This, not the "Uganda is Ebola-free" headline, is the date that governs whether Ugandan arrivals face US transit screening into September.
• RENEWED, UGANDA STILL LISTED (our base case): DRC transmission is intensifying — a record week to 30 July — so the epidemiology gives CDC little room to decouple Uganda before its own 42-day all-clear lands ~27 August. Screening continues.
• UGANDA DROPPED: possible but early; the 28 July declaration is only 15 days ahead of the order's expiry, and CDC has historically tracked the regional picture, not the single-country one.
🎯 So what: for the next nine days, quote Ugandan itineraries on the assumption screening HOLDS. Don't let a sales desk price in a lift that hasn't been signed. If it does drop, that's upside you announce — not a promise you walk back.
🏷 Bush/City | Uganda | Reported

2️⃣ FORECAST AUDIT: A CALL THAT LANDED RIGHT
On 30 July we called DRC's confirmed Bundibugyo caseload to top 3,600 by the WHO situation report around 2 August. It did: WHO's Disease Outbreak News now logs 3,605 confirmed and 1,587 deaths as at 30 July (CFR 44%). Call P039 resolved: correct.
🎯 So what: that caseload is the evidence base for scenario one above — it is why "outbreak over" in Uganda and "restrictions lifted" regionally remain two different sentences.
🏷 Regional | All | Confirmed
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📌 STILL TRUE TONIGHT
Kenya US Level 2 / UK Level 2, board unchanged since this morning. Zanzibar's US$44 insurance and Kenya's US$30 ETA unchanged. Nothing on the risk board justifies a discount.

📅 WEEK AHEAD
14–15 Aug EPRA fuel review (calls P025/P028 resolve) · 19–21 Aug Hotel Expo Kenya, KICC · 28 Aug World Travel Awards Africa Gala, Zanzibar.

💬 Running Ugandan itineraries into September? Tell us how you're wording the advisory line to agents.

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