Photo: DFID - UK Department for International Development · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

Here is the check nobody else runs — our own forecast, audited against today's numbers — plus what is still…

Here is the check nobody else runs — our own forecast, audited against today's numbers — plus what is still true underneath.

📌 FORECAST CHECK: A CALL WE GOT WRONG
On 27 July we predicted DRC's Bundibugyo case count would pass 4,000 before Uganda's outbreak was declared over. It didn't. Uganda's Ministry of Health called the all-clear on 28 July — 30 days early — with DRC still at roughly 3,600 confirmed (WHO, as at 30 July). The declaration beat the caseload to the line. Call resolved: incorrect.
🏷 Regional · All · Confirmed
🎯 So what: don't let "Uganda is Ebola-free" become "the risk has cleared." It hasn't. DRC's outbreak is intensifying — WHO logged a record week to 30 July (567 cases, 296 deaths, 44% fatality). The US Level 4 advisory on Uganda and the CDC transit-screening order both stand to at least 12 August, and Rwanda's 30-day DRC entry restriction is still in force. Sell "outbreak over", never "restrictions lifted".

📌 STILL TRUE AT MIDDAY
Kenya remains US Level 2 / UK Level 2, the advisory board unchanged since we verified it this morning. Zanzibar's mandatory US$44 visitor insurance and Kenya's US$30 ETA are unchanged.
🎯 So what: nothing on the risk board justifies a discount today.

📌 COST PULSE
Rwanda urban inflation is running at 13.6% — the region's real cost story and the one nobody is pricing (NISR). Kenya's electricity pass-through charges top KSh 5/kWh and rose again in July (EPRA). Murban crude sits at US$67.99/bbl (CBK, 3 Jul) — the August EPRA fuel review is more likely to hold or fall than rise.
🎯 So what: a Kigali property holding its 2025 USD card into 2027 is absorbing double-digit local inflation on a flat cross-rate. Rebuild the card, don't index it.

📅 WEEK AHEAD
EPRA fuel review ~14–15 Aug · Hotel Expo Kenya, KICC, 19–21 Aug (city compression) · World Travel Awards Africa Gala, Zanzibar, 28 Aug (north/east coast).

🔗 This edition on the web: eahospitalitypulse.com/editions/pulse-2026-08-03-midday…