Photo: Adrien Jailloux · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0

Here's the week that decides three of our standing calls, plus what's still true and moving underneath.

Here's the week that decides three of our standing calls, plus what's still true and moving underneath.
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1️⃣ THE 12 AUGUST WEEK — EIGHT DAYS TO THREE CALLS
Next Tuesday the US CDC §362 Ebola entry order expires (in force to 4:59pm EDT, 12 Aug, per 91 FR 43636, 16 Jul). Three of our open forecasts resolve around it. Our base case on all three is NO CHANGE: the order gets renewed with DRC still listed (DRC transmission is uncontrolled — 3,605 confirmed, 1,587 deaths, 44% CFR as at 30 Jul, per WHO DON614); the US keeps Uganda at Level 4 despite its 28 Jul end-of-outbreak declaration; and the rendered Kenya advisory page still reads "17 March 2025". Scoreboard from last week: our DRC-caseload call (>3,600) landed correct on 3 Aug; our call that Kenya's domestic press would report the 29 Jul re-issue landed incorrect — they still haven't, so our lead holds.
🎯 So what: don't wait for the 12 Aug headlines to plan. If the base case holds, there is nothing in next week's decisions that justifies discounting Kenya, Uganda or coast rate through mid-August. Plan for continuity, not a shock.
🏷 All | Regional | Reported

2️⃣ STILL TRUE: THE ADVISORY BOARD IS UNCHANGED
US: Kenya L2, Tanzania/Zanzibar L2, Uganda L4, Rwanda L3. UK: Kenya L2, Tanzania/Zanzibar L1, Uganda L3, Rwanda L2. Kenya's Eastleigh & Kibera remain Reconsider Travel (L3), NOT Do Not Travel — the primary page still dates 17 March 2025 (verified 2–3 Aug). No government has moved a level.
🎯 So what: no basis to change rate or security messaging anywhere in the region this week. A confirmed "no change" tells you not to discount.
🏷 All | Regional | Confirmed

3️⃣ COST PULSE: THE PLANNING WINDOW IS STILL OPEN
EPRA holds Nairobi diesel at KSh 222.86/L and super at KSh 214.03/L through 14 August — propped by the Petroleum Development Levy and the 8% petroleum VAT rate extended to 14 Oct. Murban crude, the leading indicator for the next review, softened to USD 67.99/bbl (−1.01 w/w, CBK bulletin) — the 15 Aug cycle is more likely to hold or fall than rise. KES steady at 129.30/USD; reserves at 6.0 months' cover. The quiet killer: Kenya electricity pass-through charges now top KSh 5/kWh and rose again in July.
🎯 So what: lock safari-transfer and generator-fuel contracts now, before the 15 Aug review and the October VAT cliff. Read the pass-through line on the power bill, not the tariff band.
🏷 Bush | Kenya | Confirmed
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📡 WEEK AHEAD
• Fri 8 Aug — CBK weekly bulletin (FX, reserves)
• Tue 12 Aug — US CDC §362 order expires; watch renewal + whether Uganda stays listed (calls P044/P034/P040 resolve)
• Fri 15 Aug — EPRA fuel review (calls P025/P028 resolve)
• 19–21 Aug — Hotel Expo Kenya, KICC Nairobi — a city-hotel midweek compression window
• 28 Aug — World Travel Awards Africa Gala, Zanzibar — north/east-coast compression

💬 Watching a rate decision hang on the 12 Aug call? Tell us which market — we'll track it with you.

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