Photo: Marumaruzanzibar · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

1️⃣ 🇰🇪 YOU GOT SH5 OFF DIESEL.

🌅 EA HOSPITALITY PULSE — Morning Brief
🗓 Saturday 15 August 2026 | 🇰🇪 🇷🇼 🇹🇿

Your diesel got Sh5 cheaper today. The market said it should have been Sh19.28. The gap is the story.
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1️⃣ 🇰🇪 YOU GOT SH5 OFF DIESEL. THE MARKET GAVE SH19.28

EPRA's schedule takes effect today, to 14 September: Nairobi diesel Sh217.86/L (–Sh5), petrol held at Sh214.03, kerosene Sh191.38.

But landed diesel fell 13.08% last month — US$855.59/m³ from US$984.37 — while landed petrol rose 6.9%. On the regulator's own disclosures diesel should have dropped Sh19.28, to Sh203.58. The State used diesel to cross-subsidise petrol, plus Sh938m of stabilisation (Business Daily, 14 Aug, quoting acting EPRA DG Joseph Oketch).

What everyone is missing: the Sh5 isn't relief. Diesel is the safari cost line — game drives, transfers, generators, boreholes, laundry — and operators are carrying Sh14.28/L above market so Nairobi's motorists don't feel the Iran-war spike. The funding is running out: the Petroleum Development Levy kitty is nearly depleted, the Exchequer is behind on arrears to marketers, and MPs have called the cross-subsidy illegal. It is in court.

🏷 Kenya · Bush/Beach/City · Confirmed (EPRA + BD, 14 Aug) / Inference (next-cycle read)
🎯 So what: (1) Refuse any supplier fuel surcharge this cycle — global diesel fell 13.08%; cite the number. (2) Don't budget the Sh5 forward. With the PDL kitty empty and the 8% fuel-VAT concession expiring 14 October, the September cycle has no cushion. Lock transfer and generator contracts now.

2️⃣ 🇰🇪 TREASURY'S SUMS DON'T ADD UP — COMMENTS CLOSE TUESDAY

The Draft 2026 Budget Review and Outlook Paper is open for public participation, comments due close of business Tue 19 August, Cabinet by 26 August (Treasury notice; Mwango Capital, 14 Aug). It cuts the FY2026/27 KRA target Sh81.4bn to Sh2.777tn — VAT –Sh18.9bn, excise –Sh17.4bn — then projects FY2027/28 revenue of Sh3.943tn against Sh5.323tn spending: a Sh1.321tn deficit, 5.7% of GDP (Business Daily, 11 Aug; People Daily, 14 Aug).

Revenue must climb roughly Sh1.17tn in one year off a base just revised down. Growth of 5.0% doesn't deliver that. The BROP's stated answer is compliance and a broader tax base — enforcement, not headline rates.

🏷 Kenya · City/Bush/Beach · Confirmed (BROP + BD) / Inference (base-broadening read)
🎯 So what: Cash-heavy F&B, fragmented STR supply, a levy base nobody has mapped — hospitality is a textbook base-broadening target. Get your association's submission in by Tuesday. Budget for tighter eTIMS enforcement, not a new rate.

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✅ STILL TRUE — Rwanda's gorilla permit holds at US$1,500 (RDB, 2026); Uganda's low-season permit stays US$600 in April, May and November (UWA). Sell the discount that already exists rather than cutting your own rate.

⚡ COST PULSE — Kenya's electricity pass-throughs: fuel-energy-cost KSh 3.20/unit plus forex KSh 1.48/unit (July 2026 billing, EPRA).

📅 WEEK AHEAD — 18 Aug WHO IHR Committee on the Bundibugyo PHEIC · 18–20 Aug AfPIF, Kigali Marriott · 19–21 Aug Hotel Expo Kenya, KICC · 28 Aug WTA Africa Gala, Zanzibar · 29 Aug Canada's quarantine measures expire.

📡 RADAR — 421 in-window observations to 07:55 EAT. Jambojet's press page changed four times in 38 hours but sits behind Incapsula: a live blind spot. Next fuel decision ~14 Sep; next CDC Ebola cycle ~10–11 Sep.

💬 Has a supplier tried a fuel surcharge on you this month?

🔗 This edition on the web: https://eahospitalitypulse.com/editions/pulse-2026-08-15-morning.html
— EA Hospitality Pulse | Daily intelligence for city, bush & beach properties