Photo: Basecamp Explorer · Basecamp Explorer (operator-supplied) · Courtesy of Basecamp Explorer — used with permission

Three inputs into your 2027 P&L moved overnight.

Three inputs into your 2027 P&L moved overnight. None of them moved in East Africa.
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1️⃣ THE FED RAISED. YOUR DOLLAR DEBT JUST REPRICED.
The US Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75–4.00% from 3.50–3.75% in a unanimous vote, its first increase since July 2023 (BBC, 17 September 2026). Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is "too high and has been for too long" — fuel-led, since the US–Israel war with Iran. Most policymakers expect a further rise to 4.00–4.25% before year-end. JP Morgan, KeyCorp and BNY lifted prime to 7% the same day. The ECB raised last week; the Bank of England decides today.
🎯 So what: Reprice any USD-denominated or floating refurbishment facility this week, not at drawdown — and delete "weakening dollar" from your 2027 rate-card assumptions. A higher US floor pulls at KES, UGX, TZS and RWF in the same month Kenya's 8% fuel VAT expires on 14 October.
🏷 City·Bush·Beach | Regional | Confirmed | impact:margin

2️⃣ HALF OF KENYA'S "MIDDLE EAST" MARKET IS AT WAR
Kenya Tourism Board will target 50,000 Middle East arrivals, against 20,480 in FY2025/26, CEO June Chepkemei said at Arabian Travel Market (Capital FM, 16 September 2026). The line nobody quoted: Israel, Yemen and Iran supplied 48% of those arrivals. The UAE gave 10%, Saudi Arabia 7%.
🎯 So what: The connectivity case — Emirates three daily into Nairobi, flydubai four weekly — points at the 17% that is Gulf. Build your Middle East plan on GCC leisure, wellness and family, and treat the Israel/Iran/Yemen half as revenue you cannot forecast. Diaspora Open Day is 10 October.
🏷 City·Beach | 🇰🇪 | Confirmed | impact:watch

3️⃣ ADDIS FLIES 2.2 SEATS FOR EVERY ONE JKIA FLIES
JKIA ranked sixth in Africa on August seat capacity at 567,644 seats, against Addis Ababa Bole's 1.25m and Cairo's 1.85m (AFRAA, via Capital FM, 16 September 2026). Continental capacity rose 8.8% year on year; intra-African seats rose 10.5%.
🎯 So what: Intra-African is growing faster than the continent. Put a regional corporate and MICE rate in market now — the incremental seat into Nairobi is increasingly African, not European.
🏷 City | 🇰🇪 | Confirmed | impact:watch

4️⃣ THE SEVENTH PROVINCE HAS A NAME: SUD-UBANGI
ECDC's DRC outbreak page now lists Sud-Ubangi among affected provinces — one case, one death, one of 16 health zones — alongside 7,258 confirmed cases and 3,510 deaths on data to 13 September (ECDC, updated 15 September 2026). Sud-Ubangi sits over 1,000km north-west of Ituri, nowhere near an East African border.
🎯 So what: Nothing changes at your gate. But the CDC's Title 42 order covering Uganda falls due for renewal around 11 October, and its release condition is DRC-side. A national-scale outbreak makes that order easier to renew, not harder. Keep selling "outbreak over" for Uganda, not "restrictions lifted".
🏷 Bush·City | 🇺🇬🇷🇼 | Confirmed | impact:risk
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📡 RADAR
• Bank of England rate decision — today, 17 September
• KRA's reduced 8% VAT on petrol, diesel and kerosene expires 14 October; EPRA's frozen pump cycle ends the same day
• CDC Title 42 Ebola entry order next decision point ~11 October
• KTB Diaspora Open Day, UAE — 10 October

🔎 Blind spot declared: africacdc.org's download portal stayed dark to us this morning; the equivalent line-level data was recovered via ECDC. Kenya's gazette portal was again unreachable and produced no substitute notice.

💬 Is your 2027 debt priced off a dollar you assumed would fall?

🔗 This edition on the web: eahospitalitypulse.com/editions/pulse-2026-09-17-mornin…
— EA Hospitality Pulse | Daily intelligence for city, bush & beach properties