The cost side: fuel, currency, energy and inflation

Rate is only half of a margin. These are the input costs that decide the other half — fuel and diesel, the shilling and the franc, energy tariffs and the inflation running underneath them. Every figure carries the official source it came from and the period it covers, because several of these series publish on a long lag.

Updated 14 September 202618 indicatorsFree to republish with attribution

Inflation — cost of delivery

Indicator	Latest	Change	Period	Source
Transport CPI vs Restaurants & Accommodation CPI, annual Headline CPI 6.6%. Subtracting headline from the accommodation line gives a REAL room-price change of -3.6pp — the worst of the four EA markets. Headline CPI 6.6%. Subtracting headline from the accommodation line gives a REAL room-price change of -3.6pp — the worst of the four EA markets. Food and non-alcoholic beverages +9.0%, housing/water/electricity/gas/fuels +3.6%. Overall index 155.20 to 155.85 (+0.4% m/m). The spread is our calculation; the two divisions are published figures.	Transport +15.7% · Accommodation +3.0%	transport running 5.2x the hospitality line	August 2026 (y/y)	KNBS, Kenya CPI and Inflation Report, August 2026, released 31 August 2026 Verified
Transport CPI vs Restaurants & Accommodation CPI, annual Headline 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July and the highest in the preceding twelve months on NBS's own account. Headline 4.3%, up from 4.2% in July and the highest in the preceding twelve months on NBS's own account. Real room-price change -1.3pp. Energy, fuel and utilities +8.5%; services index +5.9%; core 4.1%; food 3.7%. Tanzania's cost base is still the most benign of the four, but it is no longer below 4%.	Transport +13.8% · Accommodation +3.0%	transport running 4.6x the hospitality line	August 2026 (y/y)	NBS Tanzania, National CPI for August 2026, released 8 September 2026 Verified
Transport CPI vs Restaurants & Accommodation CPI, annual Headline 4.1% (from 4.0%), core 3.5%. The accommodation line FELL from 3.2% to 2.5% — the softest in the region. Headline 4.1% (from 4.0%), core 3.5%. The accommodation line FELL from 3.2% to 2.5% — the softest in the region. But petrol +28.5%, kerosene +31.2%, energy/fuel/utilities +14.3%. One easing worth pricing: international flights +17.0%, down from 24.1% in July. Real room-price change -1.6pp.	Transport +9.4% · Accommodation +2.5%	transport running 3.8x the hospitality line	August 2026 (y/y)	UBOS, Consumer Price Indices and Inflation, August 2026 Verified
Transport CPI vs Restaurants & Hotels CPI, annual (urban) Urban CPI 15.7% (14.5% July, 9.2% March); rural 16.0%; all-Rwanda 15.9%. Urban CPI 15.7% (14.5% July, 9.2% March); rural 16.0%; all-Rwanda 15.9%. Housing/water/electricity/gas/fuels +20.4%, food +16.3%, meat +36.7%, vegetables +24.7%. Core 11.5%; annual average 10.6%. Rwanda is the ONE market where operators have passed the shock through — real room-price change only -0.1pp — which is why Kigali is pricing out of the regional band rather than absorbing.	Transport +24.2% · Restaurants & hotels +15.6%	urban headline up every month since March	August 2026 (y/y)	NISR, Consumer Price Index August 2026, released 10 September 2026 Verified

Fuel — Kenya

Indicator	Latest	Change	Period	Source
Super petrol (Nairobi) THE DIRECTION REVERSED THIS CYCLE. Petrol’s landed cost fell 7.87% (USD 948.92 to USD 874.26/m³\| July to August) and NONE of it reached the pump. THE DIRECTION REVERSED THIS CYCLE. Petrol’s landed cost fell 7.87% (USD 948.92 to USD 874.26/m³\| July to August) and NONE of it reached the pump. Last cycle diesel users cross-subsidised petrol; this cycle petrol users fund the diesel and kerosene hold. Mombasa: KSh 210.87/L. The 8% VAT rate on petroleum expires 14 Oct 2026 — the same day the next review is announced. Model a step-up.	KSh 214.03/L	unchanged for a second cycle — but landed cost FELL 7.87% to USD 874.26/m³	15 Sep – 14 Oct 2026	EPRA, announced 14 Sep 2026, via The Kenya Times and EPRA_KE (x.com/EPRA_KE/status/2099483375656481255) Verified
Diesel (Nairobi) THE ENTRY THAT MATTERS. Diesel is the safari cost driver: game drives\| transfers\| generators\| borehole pumps\| supply runs. THE ENTRY THAT MATTERS. Diesel is the safari cost driver: game drives\| transfers\| generators\| borehole pumps\| supply runs. Its average landed cost rose 11.86% (USD 855.59 to USD 957.05/m³\| July to August) and the pump price did not move a shilling. That gap is deferred\| not avoided. Kenya deployed KSh 938m of Petroleum Development Levy Fund stabilisation in the 15 Aug–14 Sep cycle and KSh 945m the cycle before; no figure has yet been published for this one. Mombasa: KSh 214.58/L. Practical use: you have a KNOWN diesel cost to 14 Oct and no further — re-quote Q4 transfer supplements against 217.86 now and put a fuel-adjustment clause in anything signed before that date. Refuse a supplier fuel surcharge inside this cycle: the maximum retail price is unchanged.	KSh 217.86/L	unchanged — while landed cost ROSE 11.86% to USD 957.05/m³	15 Sep – 14 Oct 2026	EPRA, announced 14 Sep 2026, via The Kenya Times; stabilisation precedent via People Daily / EPRA, Aug 2026 Verified
Kerosene (Nairobi)Relevant to remote camps still running kerosene lighting or heating. Landed cost rose 9.71% (USD 915.01 to USD 1\|003.87/m³\| July to August) with no pass-through. Mombasa: KSh 188.09/L.	KSh 191.38/L	unchanged — while landed cost ROSE 9.71% to USD 1,003.87/m³	15 Sep – 14 Oct 2026	EPRA, announced 14 Sep 2026, via The Kenya Times Verified
Murban crude (benchmark) The leading indicator for the next EPRA review. Murban is the crude Kenya's landed cost tracks; softening prices plus an easing geopolitical risk premium mean the August cycle is more likely to hold… The leading indicator for the next EPRA review. Murban is the crude Kenya's landed cost tracks; softening prices plus an easing geopolitical risk premium mean the August cycle is more likely to hold or fall than rise. Useful the next time a supplier tries to pass on a fuel surcharge.	USD 67.99/bbl	−USD 1.01 week-on-week	week ending 2 Jul 2026	CBK Weekly Bulletin, 3 Jul 2026 Verified

Utilities

Indicator	Latest	Change	Period	Source
Kenya electricity pass-through charges The quiet margin killer. The base tariff gets the headlines, but the monthly fuel-energy-cost and forex-adjustment charges now add more than KSh 5 to every unit, and they moved up again in July. The quiet margin killer. The base tariff gets the headlines, but the monthly fuel-energy-cost and forex-adjustment charges now add more than KSh 5 to every unit, and they moved up again in July. For a property running pumps, cold rooms, laundry and air-conditioning this is a five-figure monthly swing that never shows up in a rate negotiation. Read the pass-through line on the bill, not the tariff band.	over KSh 5.00/kWh	rising — fuel energy cost charge KSh 3.20/unit, forex adjustment KSh 1.48/unit	July 2026 billing	EPRA monthly tariff adjustment, July 2026 Verified

Currency

Indicator	Latest	Change	Period	Source
KES → USD The single most important number for a USD-earning operator. Sustained shilling stability means a USD rate card converts predictably — but it also means you can no longer rely on currency drift to… The single most important number for a USD-earning operator. Sustained shilling stability means a USD rate card converts predictably — but it also means you can no longer rely on currency drift to quietly absorb local cost inflation. Rate rises now have to be taken openly.	129.30	stable (129.63 prior week)	2 Jul 2026	Central Bank of Kenya weekly bulletin Verified
Kenya FX reserves Cover jumped to six months, well above the four-month statutory floor. Cover jumped to six months, well above the four-month statutory floor. That lowers the risk of the kind of disorderly devaluation that wrecked 2023 cost bases. Good news for anyone importing linen, F&B or spares.	USD 14,047m (6.0 months import cover)	up from 5.6 months	2 Jul 2026	Central Bank of Kenya weekly bulletin Verified
KES → UGXRegional cross-rates matter for cross-border sourcing and for pricing regional guests.	28.36	broadly flat	week avg to 2 Jul 2026	Central Bank of Kenya weekly bulletin Verified
KES → TZSA stable cross-rate keeps Kenyan and Tanzanian product priced consistently against each other for regional buyers.	20.30	broadly flat	week avg to 2 Jul 2026	Central Bank of Kenya weekly bulletin Verified
KES → RWFFlat — but read it alongside Rwanda inflation below. A stable nominal cross-rate is masking a fast-rising domestic cost base in Kigali.	11.31	no movement	week avg to 2 Jul 2026	Central Bank of Kenya weekly bulletin Verified

Inflation

Indicator	Latest	Change	Period	Source
Kenya CPI (annual) Easing from 6.7% in May as fuel and food moderate. But the split matters: core inflation is only 3.1% while non-core runs at 15.1% — the pressure is almost entirely energy, transport and food,… Easing from 6.7% in May as fuel and food moderate. But the split matters: core inflation is only 3.1% while non-core runs at 15.1% — the pressure is almost entirely energy, transport and food, exactly the lines a hotel kitchen and laundry carry. Headline relief is not margin relief.	6.4%	−0.3pt, second month of easing	June 2026	KNBS / CBK Verified
Tanzania inflation (annual) Food inflation fell sharply to 4.1%, pulling the headline down. Food inflation fell sharply to 4.1%, pulling the headline down. Transport is the outlier at +13.6% year-on-year. Tanzania and Zanzibar operators retain the region's most benign cost base — a real advantage to hold rate against.	4.0%	−0.2pt from 4.2%	June 2026	NBS Tanzania Verified
Uganda inflation (annual) Still low in absolute terms, but the direction has turned and the driver is fuel: liquid energy fuels inflation hit 26.2% year-on-year, up from 16.6% in May, pushing passenger transport to 11.9%. Still low in absolute terms, but the direction has turned and the driver is fuel: liquid energy fuels inflation hit 26.2% year-on-year, up from 16.6% in May, pushing passenger transport to 11.9%. For Ugandan lodges, transfer and generator costs are rising well ahead of the headline. Core firmed to 3.4%.	3.7%	+0.5pt from 3.2%	June 2026	UBOS Verified
Rwanda urban inflation (annual) The most serious cost story in the region and the one nobody is pricing. The most serious cost story in the region and the one nobody is pricing. Kigali urban inflation has accelerated three months running, driven by health costs up 71.2% year-on-year, transport up 26% and housing, water, electricity and fuels up 20.5%. The twelve-month average is 9.3%. A Kigali property holding its 2025 USD rate card into 2027 is absorbing a double-digit local cost increase against a flat nominal RWF cross-rate. Rebuild the rate card rather than indexing it.	13.6%	+0.7pt, third consecutive monthly acceleration	June 2026	NISR Rwanda Verified

Machine-readable: /api/v1/cost-index.json · free to reuse with attribution, see syndication.

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